MLB / mlb / live
LAD 12 / PIT 3LADLos Angeles Dodgers53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEric Lauer
Model pickLAD moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
LAD53%ML +100
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
PIT47%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanOver
Model-market gap5.3 pts
Skenes has 0.2 IP this season (67.5 ERA, 9.0 WHIP) - clearly injured or just returned. Lauer's 5.1 IP sample is also microscopic. Both pitcher profiles are noise. Model total 9.39 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean in hitter park (PF 1.055), but pitcher uncertainty dominates. Pass on side, slight over lean on total given LAD offense (0.743 OPS) and park.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+100 / -120LAD / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total