MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / PIT 6MINMinnesota Twins59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterTaj Bradley
Model pickMIN moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterJared Jones
MIN59%ML +110
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
PIT41%ML -132
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.3 pts
Model has MIN at 58.6% but market implies PIT 55.6%. Bradley's 18.69 K/9 in 4.1 IP is meaningless tiny sample. Model likely overweighting that noise. PIT offense (.710 OPS) vs MIN (.673 OPS) supports home side. Lean PIT, under 8.0 total.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -132MIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line23 total