MLB / mlb / live
PHI 6 / PIT 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies42%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterZack Wheeler
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
PHI42%ML +116
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PIT58%ML -138
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Paul Skenes shows 0.2 IP and 67.50 ERA (likely 1 ER in emergency appearance). Wheeler has null stats. Both pitcher profiles are unreliable. Model predicts 9.05 runs vs market 7.0—a 2-run gap flags structural uncertainty. Market implies PHI slight favorite (44.8%) vs model's PIT 58%. Pass on side and total until pitcher data resolves.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+116 / -138PHI / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total