MLB / mlb / live
PHI 6 / PIT 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher Sánchez
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBubba Chandler
PHI47%ML -172
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability39%Selected moneyline pick
PIT53%ML +143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap14.0 pts
Chandler's null season stats make his side unanalyzable despite 10 starts logged. Sánchez shows 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP across 10 starts—impossible small sample, likely placeholder data. Model leans PIT at 53% vs market's 40% PHI lean (13pp gap triggers flag). With both pitcher profiles unusable, defer entirely on side. Slight over lean: PNCpark factor 1.055, model 9.04 vs market 8.5.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-172 / +143PHI / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-119)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total