MLB / mlb / live
COL 1 / PIT 3COLColorado Rockies53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael Lorenzen
Model pickCOL moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
COL53%ML +270
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability26%Selected moneyline pick
PIT47%ML -345
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap27.3 pts
Model has COL 53% despite Pinnacle pricing PIT -319 (74% implied). PIT's 22-19 record and 5.8 RPG vs COL's 16-25/4.2 RPG/0.531 OPS supports market. Skenes' 0.2 IP/67.5 ERA is noise from injury/opener stint; underlying talent and PIT home comparison are real. Model's 9.33 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.83-run structural miss—lean under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+270 / -345COL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total