MLB / mlb / live
COL 1 / PIT 3COLColorado Rockies53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael Lorenzen
Model pickCOL moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
COL53%ML +270
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT47%ML -345
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time27.5 pts
Model has COL 53% despite Pinnacle pricing PIT -319 (74% implied). PIT's 22-19 record and 5.8 RPG vs COL's 16-25/4.2 RPG/0.531 OPS supports market. Skenes' 0.2 IP/67.5 ERA is noise from injury/opener stint; underlying talent and PIT home comparison are real. Model's 9.33 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.83-run structural miss—lean under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+270 / -345COL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total