MLB / mlb / live
COL 10 / PIT 4COLColorado Rockies36%
PITPittsburgh Pirates64%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterJose Quintana
Model pickPIT moneyline64%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
COL36%ML +153
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
PIT64%ML -185
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts
Model (64.1%) and market (62.9%) align on PIT. Keller's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP across 10 starts is impossibly small-sample (0.6 IP/start); Quintana's 4.15 ERA in 4.1 IP is similarly thin. COL's .531 OPS is league-worst, supporting PIT side, but pitcher data is too noisy for strong conviction. Total near market at 8.85 vs 8.5; park factor 1.055 argues slight over but I pass given starter uncertainty.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.4
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+153 / -185COL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total