MLB / mlb / live
CIN 7 / PIT 17CINCincinnati Reds56%
PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterRhett Lowder
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterCarmen Mlodzinski
CIN56%ML +114
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
PIT44%ML -134
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.2 pts
Model has CIN 56.1%, market implies PIT 54.4% — tight disagreement. Model's 9.82 total is 1.82 runs over market's 8.0, likely overweighting PNC's 1.055 park factor and recent bullpen contact quality. Both starters have tiny IP samples (4.1 and 5.0) making ERA/WHIP unreliable. Lean CIN on record (20-12 vs 17-16) and offense (5.6 RPG vs 4.8), but defer to market on total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -134CIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total