MLB / mlb / live
STL 10 / PIT 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals49%
PITPittsburgh Pirates51%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterHunter Dobbins
Model pickPIT moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
STL49%ML +185
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability66%Selected moneyline pick
PIT51%ML -225
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap15.8 pts
Skenes' 67.5 ERA in 0.2 IP is a data artifact (likely opener role). Dobbins has no stats. Market implies 66.7% PIT; model says 50.6%. The 16-percentage-point gap flags structural model failure. STL's 0.812 OPS vs PIT's 0.71 OPS supports away value. Market total 7.0 vs model 8.94 suggests pitcher quality mispricing.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+185 / -225STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -122
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total