MLB / mlb / live
STL 10 / PIT 5STLSt. Louis Cardinals49%
PITPittsburgh Pirates51%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterHunter Dobbins
Model pickPIT moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
STL49%ML +185
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
PIT51%ML -225
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.1 pts
Skenes' 67.5 ERA in 0.2 IP is a data artifact (likely opener role). Dobbins has no stats. Market implies 66.7% PIT; model says 50.6%. The 16-percentage-point gap flags structural model failure. STL's 0.812 OPS vs PIT's 0.71 OPS supports away value. Market total 7.0 vs model 8.94 suggests pitcher quality mispricing.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+185 / -225STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -122
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total