MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / PIT 6TBRTampa Bay Rays49%
PITPittsburgh Pirates51%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterShane McClanahan
Model pickPIT moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMitch Keller
TBR49%ML -105
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
PIT51%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.4 pts
McClanahan's stats are completely missing despite 10 starts; Keller shows 6.0 IP over 10 starts (0.6 IP/GS) which is impossible. Data integrity is broken. Model at 9.0 runs vs market 7.5 is a massive 1.5-run gap pointing to data issues. Pass on side, but if data were clean, TBR's .802 OPS and model's high total suggest over.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -115TBR / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -104
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total