MLB / mlb / live
TBR 8 / PIT 7TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul Skenes
TBR42%ML +134
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PIT58%ML -159
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Market and model converge on PIT ~58%. Skenes' 0.2 IP sample is near-zero information; 67.5 ERA is a blowup inning, not a true talent signal. Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is also tiny but suggests control (0.8 WHIP, low walks). Model predicts 9.1 total vs market 7.5—a 1.6 run gap flags structural mispricing. Lean under on total; standard pick on PIT moneyline lacks comparison.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+134 / -159TBR / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -118
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total