MLB / mlb / live
STL 4 / PIT 2STLSt. Louis Cardinals56%
PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterDustin May
Model pickSTL moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterMason Montgomery
STL56%ML +111
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
PIT44%ML -134
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.9 pts
Both starters in extreme small samples: Montgomery 2.1 IP, May 4.0 IP. Model's moneyline (STL 55.7%) nearly matches market (STL 54.8%), but pitcher data is essentially noise. Model flags offense_defense_mismatch picking STL despite PIT's better record. Cannot responsibly lean either way on 2-4 IP of starter data.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+111 / -134STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -111
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total