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TBR 2 / PHI 0
TBRTampa Bay Rays36%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies64%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TBRAway starterFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
TBR36%ML +149
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
PHI64%ML -177

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.3 pts

Model (64.2%) and market (60.8%) agree on Philadelphia, and the pitching comparison is real: Sánchez at 2.93 ERA / 9.95 K9 over 200 IP versus Peralta at 4.56 ERA / 1.33 WHIP. Citizens Bank at 1.148 park factor plus Peralta's walk-prone profile nudges me over a low 6.5 line, though TBR's .802 OPS against a weak PHI slash line makes the side less than comfortable.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total7.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Freddy PeraltaTBR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 betonlineag / U +125 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+149 / -177TBR / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total