MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMILMilwaukee Brewers55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterLogan HendersonProbable
Model pickMIL moneyline55%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaProbable
MIL55%ML -127
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
PHI45%ML +107
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total7.9
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanatics / U -113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.564%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.8
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.582%
O 4.567%
O 5.552%
O 6.536%
O 7.524%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus-127 / +107MIL / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total