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MIL 4 / PHI 6
MILMilwaukee Brewers46%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies54%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterDustin MayConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
MIL46%ML +128
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PHI54%ML -154

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts

Model (54.5%) and market (55.6%) essentially agree on PHI, so the offense_defense_mismatch flag is mostly explained by the pitching comparison: Wheeler 2.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 versus May's 4.61 ERA, 1.32 WHIP. On the total, the model leans on the 1.148 park factor to reach 8.18 while PHI's .570 OPS and 3.9 RPG cap one side of the scoreboard; 7.0 looks fair to slightly high.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dustin MayMIL starter / away
Projected K2.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betonlineag / U -129 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.527%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%over
O 2.548%under
O 3.527%under
O 4.513%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -125 bovada / U +113 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.529%over
O 8.518%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%over
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+128 / -154MIL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -107 / U -113
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total