MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMILMilwaukee Brewers46%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies54%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterDustin MayProbable
Model pickPHI moneyline54%Model 20260921_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerProbable
MIL46%ML +115
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
PHI54%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Dustin MayMIL starter / away
Projected K2.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.573%
O 2.548%
O 3.527%
O 4.513%
O 5.55%
O 6.52%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.2
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.594%
O 3.585%
O 4.573%
O 5.557%
O 6.542%
O 7.529%
O 8.518%
O 9.511%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame
Market consensus+115 / -139MIL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -122
32 books31 ML25 run line23 total