MLB / mlb / live
HOU 6 / PHI 5HOUHouston Astros43%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies57%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterHayden WesneskiConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline57%Model 20260907_auto
PHIHome starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
HOU43%ML +116
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
PHI57%ML -138
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.4
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Lines
Hayden WesneskiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.2
Best price at 3.53.5O -123 betonlineag / U +115 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K5.0
Best price at 4.54.5O -115 betmgm / U +104 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.572%
O 4.555%
O 5.538%
O 6.524%
O 7.514%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+116 / -138HOU / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total