MLB / mlb / live
HOU 7 / PHI 11HOUHouston Astros39%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies61%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterHunter BrownConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
PHIHome starterCristopher SánchezConfirmed
HOU39%ML +128
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PHI61%ML -154
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Hunter BrownHOU starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +134 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 betonlineag / U -113 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%under
O 4.577%under
O 5.563%under
O 6.548%under
O 7.534%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -154HOU / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total