MLB / mlb / live
STL 6 / PHI 7STLSt. Louis Cardinals39%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies61%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterHunter DobbinsConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
STL39%ML +226
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PHI61%ML -275
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Hunter DobbinsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 betrivers / U +124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%under
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K7.5Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 bovada / U -135 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.585%over
O 5.574%over
O 6.561%over
O 7.547%over
O 8.534%over
O 9.523%under
O 10.515%under
O 11.59%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+226 / -275STL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total