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MIA 4 / PHI 6
MIAMiami Marlins32%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies68%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterCade GibsonConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline68%Model 20260817_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
MIA32%ML +185
Base model probability68%Moneyline only
PHI68%ML -220

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.7 pts

Model (67.9%) and market (67.2%) essentially agree on PHI, so no independent comparison — but Wheeler's 2.89 ERA, 10.69 K/9 and 1.00 WHIP over 115.3 IP against Gibson's 5.61 ERA and 1.54 WHIP is a clean pitching mismatch. Model's 9.57 total is 1.57 over the market 8.0, driven mostly by the 1.15 park factor; that ignores Wheeler suppressing half the innings, so I won't follow it. No view on the total.

total far from marketextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cade GibsonMIA starter / away
Projected K1.8Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.553%under
O 2.527%under
O 3.511%under
O 4.54%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +120 bovada / U -130 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+185 / -220MIA / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total