MLB / mlb / live
MIA 1 / PHI 4MIAMiami Marlins48%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies52%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline52%Model 20260817_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
MIA48%ML +124
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PHI52%ML -147
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +124 draftkings / U -145 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -124 draftkings / U +108 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+124 / -147MIA / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total