MLB / mlb / live
WSN 3 / PHI 6WSNWashington Nationals47%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterAndrew AlvarezConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
WSN47%ML +130
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PHI53%ML -155
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Andrew AlvarezWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -134 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.546%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -155WSN / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -118 / U -103
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total