MLB / mlb / live
WSN 0 / PHI 5WSNWashington Nationals37%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies63%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterCarson PalmquistConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline63%Model 20260803_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
WSN37%ML +256
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
PHI63%ML -310
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Carson PalmquistWSN starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%under
O 2.561%under
O 3.540%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +100 betmgm / U -110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 7.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.567%over
O 6.553%over
O 7.539%under
O 8.527%under
O 9.517%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+256 / -310WSN / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -102 / U -118
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total