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NYY 1 / PHI 0
NYYNew York Yankees54%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies46%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
PHIHome starterJesús LuzardoConfirmed
NYY54%ML +118
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PHI46%ML -138

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.4 pts

Market favors PHI at 56%, model has NYY at 54.3%. Luzardo's 3.43 ERA and 11.16 K/9 in 115 IP is legitimate; Warren's 4.00 ERA over 99 IP is league-average. Citizens Bank Park (PF 1.148) pushes totals up. Model at 8.65 vs market 7.5 is warranted by park factor. Lean PHI on home field and better starter.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +116 fanduel / U -136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%over
O 10.54%over
O 11.52%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Jesús LuzardoPHI starter / home
Projected K7.7Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +100 betmgm / U -104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.586%over
O 5.576%over
O 6.563%over
O 7.550%over
O 8.537%over
O 9.525%under
O 10.517%under
O 11.510%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+118 / -138NYY / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total