sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

NYY 3 / PHI 1
NYYNew York Yankees52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline52%Model 20260720_auto
PHIHome starterTim MayzaConfirmed
NYY52%ML -125
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PHI48%ML +105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.0 pts

PHI pitcher is TBD with fallback stats. Model leans PHI at 55% vs market 47% — an 8-point gap on unknown starter is structural noise. Extreme park (1.15 PF) pushes total but without knowing PHI's actual starter I can't evaluate either side or total with any conviction. Pass.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan WeathersNYY starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 bovada / U -145 fanatics4 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Tim MayzaPHI starter / home
Projected K2.4Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.569%under
O 2.543%under
O 3.522%under
O 4.510%under
O 5.54%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +105NYY / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-152)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -111 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total