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NYM 6 / PHI 1
NYMNew York Mets42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260713_auto
PHIHome starterAlan RangelConfirmed
NYM42%ML -129
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PHI58%ML +108

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.6 pts

Model has PHI at 58.3% but market implies NYM at 54.3% — a 12.6pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. NYM's superior offense (5.1 RPG, .736 OPS vs 3.1/.57) and McLean's 107 IP sample trump Rangel's 19 IP. Citizens Bank 1.15 park factor plus weak PHI offense argues over 8.5. Defer to market on side.

Large model-market gapextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 fanduel / U -134 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Alan RangelPHI starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -110 betonlineag / U +106 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-129 / +108NYM / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -119 / U -101
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total