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PIT 11 / PHI 7
PITPittsburgh Pirates56%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
PIT56%ML -109
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
PHI44%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap6.1 pts

Model picks PIT at 56% vs market 50.5%, a minor comparison. Ashcraft's 3.07 ERA over 96.7 IP is legitimate vs Nola's 5.58 in 80.7 IP. Citizens Bank Park (PF 1.15) inflates the total, but PHI's 0.4 RPG season is catastrophically bad. Model total 7.84 vs market 8.5 suggests under despite hitter park.

extreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.5
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +120 betonlineag / U -136 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%over
O 5.552%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanduel / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-109 / -110PIT / PHI moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total