sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

PIT 6 / PHI 10
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
PIT47%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
PHI53%ML -147

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap4.1 pts

Wheeler (2.03 ERA) vs Skenes (3.10 ERA) is an ace matchup but market total at 8.0 underprices the extreme hitter park (PF 1.15). Model's 9.12 total is reasonable given venue context. PHI offense (6.7 RPG, though .57 OPS looks like a data issue) has home advantage. Market implies 55.6% PHI, model 53.2%—near coin flip on side.

extreme parkace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K6.7Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +125 betonlineag / U -152 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.589%over
O 4.578%over
O 5.564%under
O 6.549%under
O 7.535%under
O 8.524%under
O 9.515%under
O 10.59%under
O 11.55%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K6.1Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betmgm / U -136 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 7.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%over
O 6.541%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.517%over
O 9.510%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+125 / -147PIT / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -108
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total