sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

NYM 6 / PHI 4
NYMNew York Mets51%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies49%

at Citizens Bank Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline51%Model 20260616_auto
PHIHome starterAaron NolaConfirmed
NYM51%ML +104
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
PHI49%ML -124

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap4.5 pts

Model has NYM at 51.5%, market at 47.8% - essentially a coin flip. PHI has better record but worse OPS (0.57 vs 0.736), explaining the mismatch flag. Both starters struggling (Nola 5.86 ERA, Manaea 4.78 ERA) but Citizens Bank PF 1.15 argues for runs. Market total 9.5 vs model 8.94 suggests under lean despite park. Too close to be confident.

offense defense mismatchextreme park

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 draftkings / U -150 fanatics5 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Aaron NolaPHI starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betmgm / U -147 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.557%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+104 / -124NYM / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total