MLB / mlb / live
MIA 12 / PHI 4MIAMiami Marlins42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260616_auto
PHIHome starterAndrew PainterConfirmed
MIA42%ML +103
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
PHI58%ML -120
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+103 / -120MIA / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total