MLB / mlb / live
MIA 0 / PHI 7MIAMiami Marlins42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterRyan GustoConfirmed
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterZack WheelerConfirmed
MIA42%ML +163
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
PHI58%ML -197
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ryan GustoMIA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 draftkings / U +106 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.575%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Zack WheelerPHI starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +135 bovada / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%over
O 7.520%over
O 8.512%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+163 / -197MIA / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total