MLB / mlb / live
CHW 6 / PHI 3CHWChicago White Sox56%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterBrandon Eisert
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAndrew Painter
CHW56%ML +117
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
PHI44%ML -138
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.8 pts
Model leans CHW at 56% vs market's 45%, an 11-point gap flagged as large disagreement. CHW offense is elite (6.1 RPG, .729 OPS) vs PHI's weak .570 OPS. However, both pitchers lack IP/ERA data despite 'full' quality—structural uncertainty. Citizens Bank 1.15 park factor pushes total, but market at 10.0 already prices it in; model's 9.25 suggests under value.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+117 / -138CHW / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total