MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / PHI 3SDPSan Diego Padres37%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies63%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterWalker Buehler
Model pickPHI moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
SDP37%ML +190
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
PHI63%ML -232
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.2 pts
Buehler's stats are completely null despite data_quality='full'—cannot evaluate away pitcher. Sánchez shows 0.00 ERA in only 6.0 IP over 10 starts (0.6 IP/start is impossible). Data integrity failure makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Model predicts 9.11 runs vs market 7.5 in extreme hitter park, but without valid pitcher data I cannot assess whether that gap is structural or noise.
total far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+190 / -232SDP / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total