MLB / mlb / live
CLE 0 / PHI 3CLECleveland Guardians49%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies51%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterSlade Cecconi
Model pickPHI moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterZack Wheeler
CLE49%ML +150
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
PHI51%ML -179
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.0 pts
Market has PHI at 63.6% vs model's 50.6% — large gap. Wheeler's missing stats are suspicious but PHI is home in a pitcher's park (PF 1.15 helps hitters, not pitchers — flag mislabeled). Cecconi's 12.46 ERA in 4.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Model's 9.3 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.3-run miss; defer to market under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+150 / -179CLE / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total