MLB / mlb / live
CLE 0 / PHI 3CLECleveland Guardians49%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies51%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterSlade Cecconi
Model pickPHI moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterZack Wheeler
CLE49%ML +150
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
PHI51%ML -179
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.0 pts
Market has PHI at 63.6% vs model's 50.6% — large gap. Wheeler's missing stats are suspicious but PHI is home in a pitcher's park (PF 1.15 helps hitters, not pitchers — flag mislabeled). Cecconi's 12.46 ERA in 4.1 IP is tiny sample noise. Model's 9.3 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.3-run miss; defer to market under.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+150 / -179CLE / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total