MLB / mlb / live
CLE 1 / PHI 0CLECleveland Guardians52%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies48%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCLEAway starterGavin Williams
Model pickCLE moneyline52%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
CLE52%ML +153
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PHI48%ML -185
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time14.9 pts
Model has CLE at 52% while Pinnacle implies PHI 63% — a massive 11-point gap favoring the home side. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP with 0.50 WHIP is elite; Williams' 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP is poor. Model's 9.35 total vs market 6.5 is a 2.85-run structural miss, likely overweighting park factor while underweighting Sánchez's dominance. Side with market on both.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+153 / -185CLE / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+126)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -116 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total