MLB / mlb / live
COL 0 / PHI 6COLColorado Rockies37%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies63%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterTomoyuki Sugano
Model pickPHI moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
COL37%ML +250
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
PHI63%ML -311
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.3 pts
Away pitcher Sugano has zero recorded IP/ERA/K9 data despite 10 starts—a data quality failure that undermines both moneyline and total. Model at 62.9% vs market 73.2% for PHI is a massive 10.3pp gap flagging structural issue. Park factor 1.15 and model total 8.92 vs market 8.5 lean over, but can't trust margin without Sugano's stats.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+250 / -311COL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-136)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total