MLB / mlb / live
COL 9 / PHI 7COLColorado Rockies55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterChase Dollander
Model pickCOL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterJesús Luzardo
COL55%ML +180
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PHI45%ML -220
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time21.2 pts
Market has PHI at 66%, model has COL at 55%. Dollander has null stats (data_quality=full but no IP/ERA). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample. Market knows more here. Total at 9.21 vs 7.5 line is extreme; park factor 1.15 but pitcher uncertainty high.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+180 / -220COL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +101 / U -124
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total