MLB / mlb / live
OAK 1 / PHI 9OAKOakland Athletics42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedOAKAway starterLuis Severino
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
OAK42%ML +158
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PHI58%ML -190
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts
Model has PHI 58% vs market 63%; offense_defense_mismatch fired (PHI 15-20, worse record and 4.3 RPG vs OAK 18-16, 4.7 RPG). Sánchez stats (6 IP, 0.00 ERA) are extreme small-sample noise. Extreme park (1.15 PF) pushes total over 9 but market already prices it at 9.0. Lean OAK on mismatch logic.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+158 / -190OAK / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total