MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / PHI 3SFGSan Francisco Giants56%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLogan Webb
Model pickSFG moneyline56%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
SFG56%ML +122
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
PHI44%ML -147
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.0 pts
Model has SFG at 55.7% but market implies PHI 57.3% — a meaningful divergence. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise, but Webb's 10.80 ERA in 5 IP is real struggle. Model's 9.28 total vs market 7.0 is a 2.28-run gap in a hitter park; both offenses are scuffling (PHI 3.7 RPG, SFG 3.9 RPG). Lean PHI on Webb's form, lean under on offensive context despite park.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+122 / -147SFG / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+153)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -113 / U -108
30 books28 ML23 run line20 total