MLB / mlb / live
SFG 0 / PHI 7SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler Mahle
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterJesús Luzardo
SFG55%ML +140
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PHI45%ML -172
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time15.8 pts
Market heavily favors PHI (-162, 60.5% implied) while model barely leans SFG (55.2%). PHI's 9-19 record and 3.0 RPG are alarming, but model's SHAP features highlight opponent quality and pitcher contact metrics over basic offense. Extreme park factor (1.148) pushes total over market's 8.0; model's 9.43 aligns with venue. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in limited sample suggests vulnerability.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -172SFG / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+123)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total