MLB / mlb / live
SFG 0 / PHI 7SFGSan Francisco Giants55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler Mahle
Model pickSFG moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterJesús Luzardo
SFG55%ML +140
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability40%Selected moneyline pick
PHI45%ML -172
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap15.5 pts
Market heavily favors PHI (-162, 60.5% implied) while model barely leans SFG (55.2%). PHI's 9-19 record and 3.0 RPG are alarming, but model's SHAP features highlight opponent quality and pitcher contact metrics over basic offense. Extreme park factor (1.148) pushes total over market's 8.0; model's 9.43 aligns with venue. Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in limited sample suggests vulnerability.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+140 / -172SFG / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+123)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total