MLB / mlb / live
ATL 3 / PHI 1ATLAtlanta Braves55%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies45%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterCristopher Sánchez
ATL55%ML +106
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PHI45%ML -125
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts
Both starters showing 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP signals extreme small-sample noise. ATL's 6.6 RPG vs PHI's 3.6 RPG is decisive offensive comparison. Model total at 9.32 vs market 7.0 is a 2.3-run gap in a hitter's park with ace matchup—structural miss. Market and team quality favor ATL lean, total leans under toward 7.0.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketextreme parkace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -125ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total