MLB / mlb / live
ATL 4 / PHI 2ATLAtlanta Braves42%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies58%
at Citizens Bank Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterGrant Holmes
Model pickPHI moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PHIHome starterAndrew Painter
ATL42%ML +102
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
PHI58%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts
Model picks PHI (57.5%) over market (52.6%) despite ATL's superior offense (6.7 vs 3.1 RPG, .789 vs .57 OPS). Painter has 2 starts with no usable stats—fallback risk. Holmes (5.4 ERA, 1.4 WHIP) is hittable. Extreme park (1.15 PF) + ATL's offense argues over 8.0. Taking ATL.
offense defense mismatchextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -120ATL / PHI moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+123)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -107
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total