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BAL 3 / NYY 6
BALBaltimore Orioles41%
NYYNew York Yankees59%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterBrandon YoungProbable
Model pickNYY moneyline59%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterRyan Yarbrough
BAL41%ML +114
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
NYY59%ML -136

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.3 pts

Model (52.6%) sits under the market's 55.9% on NYY, so no comparison on the side; NYY's 5.4 RPG vs BAL's 3.4 RPG and .662 OPS still favors the home side modestly. Brendan Beck has one career start (7.7 IP, 8.22 ERA), which is too little to trust either way. Model's 8.60 total is 2.1 runs above a 6.5 market line at a 0.93 park with Rogers (4.07 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) opposing a weak offense — lean under.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+114 / -136BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -104
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total