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BAL 10 / NYY 2
BALBaltimore Orioles47%
NYYNew York Yankees53%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline53%Model 20260921_auto
NYYHome starterBrendan BeckConfirmed
BAL47%ML -112
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
NYY53%ML -106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time3.9 pts

NYY at 92-67 and 5.4 RPG against a 78-81 BAL club scoring 3.4 RPG is a clear talent gap, and Brandon Young's 1.36 WHIP with 7.54 K/9 doesn't project well in this spot. Model's 59.2% sits only modestly above the market's 55.3%, so no large comparison. Home starter is TBD/fallback, so the 7.78 total projection against a 6.5 line is unusable; passing on the total.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 betonlineag / U -116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brendan BeckNYY starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 8 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -106BAL / NYY moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -107 / U -113
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total