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COL 3 / NYY 5
COLColorado Rockies39%
NYYNew York Yankees61%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline61%Model 20260907_auto
NYYHome starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
COL39%ML +274
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
NYY61%ML -345

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.6 pts

Market's 74.8% on NYY looks closer than the model's 61.1%. Schlittler (2.04 ERA, 11.01 K/9, 0.94 WHIP) against a .531 OPS Colorado lineup, opposed by Hughes at 6.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, is a wide talent gap. Under 8.0 on the pitcher-park factor (0.9325) plus COL's punchless offense; note Schlittler's IP total looks inconsistent with 10 starts.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total7.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -149 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K7.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -128 fanduel / U +118 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 7.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.584%over
O 5.572%over
O 6.559%over
O 7.545%over
O 8.532%over
O 9.522%over
O 10.514%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+274 / -345COL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-147)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -111 / U -107
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total