MLB / mlb / live
BOS 2 / NYY 9BOSBoston Red Sox42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterAlec GamboaConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260824_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
BOS42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -142
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.6
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Alec GamboaBOS starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.565%under
O 2.538%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -142BOS / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total