MLB / mlb / live
HOU 9 / NYY 7HOUHouston Astros42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterEthan PeckoConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260824_auto
NYYHome starterWill WarrenConfirmed
HOU42%ML +125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -147
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Ethan PeckoHOU starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -131 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%under
O 2.583%under
O 3.567%under
O 4.549%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -135 betonlineag / U +118 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -147HOU / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -121 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total