MLB / mlb / live
HOU 3 / NYY 9HOUHouston Astros46%
NYYNew York Yankees54%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterPeter LambertConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
NYYHome starterElmer RodríguezConfirmed
HOU46%ML +106
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
NYY54%ML -124
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -159 betrivers / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Elmer RodríguezNYY starter / home
Projected K3.4Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 fanduel / U +100 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%over
O 2.564%over
O 3.543%over
O 4.525%over
O 5.513%over
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+106 / -124HOU / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total