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SEA 1 / NYY 0
SEASeattle Mariners44%
NYYNew York Yankees56%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterLogan GilbertConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260810_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
SEA44%ML +138
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
NYY56%ML -164

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.1 pts

Model (55.5%) and market (56.6%) essentially agree on NYY, so there's no side comparison worth pressing. The real disagreement is the total: model at 8.99 vs a 7.5 line, with Fried (2.88 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) opposite Gilbert (3.42 ERA, 9.37 K/9) in a 0.93 park factor venue. That combination argues under, not over.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan GilbertSEA starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -135 betmgm / U +115 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.546%over
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -133 draftkings / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+138 / -164SEA / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total