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TOR 1 / NYY 3
TORToronto Blue Jays32%
NYYNew York Yankees68%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterMason FluhartyConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline68%Model 20260817_auto
NYYHome starterCam SchlittlerConfirmed
TOR32%ML +168
Base model probability68%Moneyline only
NYY68%ML -200

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.7 pts

Model (67.9%) and market (67.2%) converge on NYY, so no independent comparison, but Schlittler's 2.19 ERA and 11.19 K/9 justify the side. Toronto's starter is TBD with fallback stats, so the total is the shakier number. Model's 8.59 sits well above the 7.5 line despite Yankee Stadium's 0.93 park factor and NYY's 3.5 RPG offense; I lean under.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.5
Projected total8.5
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mason FluhartyTOR starter / away
Projected K2.2Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.564%under
O 2.537%under
O 3.518%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Cam SchlittlerNYY starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -111 fanduel / U -105 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+168 / -200TOR / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total