MLB / mlb / live
ATL 2 / NYY 3ATLAtlanta Braves43%
NYYNew York Yankees57%
at Yankee Stadium
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline57%Model 20260803_auto
NYYHome starterMax FriedConfirmed
ATL43%ML +110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
NYY57%ML -128
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler MahleATL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +106 betrivers / U -123 betonlineag7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%over
O 8.56%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Max FriedNYY starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betonlineag / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+110 / -128ATL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -112 / U -109
32 books30 ML22 run line21 total