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STL 3 / NYY 1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
NYYNew York Yankees58%

at Yankee Stadium

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
NYYHome starterWill WarrenConfirmed
STL42%ML +132
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
NYY58%ML -158

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model 58.2% vs market implied 59.5% — essentially aligned, no comparison to exploit. Both offenses score little (NYY 3.7 RPG, STL 3.3 RPG) and Yankee Stadium's 0.933 run factor suppresses further, so the model's 8.65 total sits above where these bats justify. STL's .812 OPS against a 3.3 RPG mark is internally inconsistent, which argues for caution on the side. Slight NYY preference, under on the 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +104 betrivers / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Will WarrenNYY starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -103 betonlineag / U -112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+132 / -158STL / NYY moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books30 ML23 run line21 total